Interesting piece about peak oil and Disney:
"Several months ago, I used this space to muse about "peak oil," a phenomenon of the world starting to run out of petroleum and the effect on prices in general and Disney World in particular. Disney had commissioned a study, and if oil stays above $160/barrel, Disney was advised to sell off the WDW parks and just collect a licensing fee. The parks would still eke out a profit, but not as much of a profit margin as Disney wants and the parks would be a drag on the company's bottom line."
More here...
Oil today: about $135 a barrel.
6 comments:
Yes, I think the end is probably very near for Disneyland/World, Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and all of the major airlines (at least in their current incarnations).
Coincidentally, just yesterday I watched a fantastic presentation on Peak Oil (and why our civilization is so utterly oblivious to and unprepared for the consequences that are just starting to unfold) by Nate Hagens at ASPO6. Nate is one of the editors at The Oil Drum, a blog I read everyday, and is also a PhD student of ecological economics at U of Vermont.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8376399674314760863
James Howard Kunstler also gave an excellent speech recently to the Congress for the New Urbanism and I think he actually uses Disneyland as an example. :)
http://c-realmpodcast.podomatic.com/entry/2008-04-09T20_10_59-07_00
I didn't see anywhere in there what the weak dollar does to the "importing" of tourism and the many more people that are coming into the United States from other countries to see the mouse and to convert their currencies into dollars to spend spend spend.
Peak oil will spur research and development (some of which has been already done, but through the profit maximizing goals of the firms who hold the control of these technologies will hold them off until their current investment returns deplete to the level to make the technology a feasible investment) which will enable our society and world to trend towards more viable methods of consumption.
At least thats the economic view on it.
Dan, he does actually address that in the full text of the article - we can't count on a realtively weak dollar forever, first of all, but even if it does remain so, Disney has put parks all over the world. The more it costs to get here, the more likely it is that Europe will decide that Disneyland Paris is "good enough". Plus there is a new uber theme park going up in Dubai that will provide some stiff competition (thanks, oil!). With Americans being forced into "staycations", Hershey Park may be all you get in PA, but Disneyland might be OK if people continue to visit their regional park.
As for the "economic solution" to peak oil, that is part of it, sure, but public funding and assistance is absolutely critical to stimulating alternative energy and research and development. No other public infrastructure exists without federal subsidy, and to expect clean technologies to do so is libertarian fantasy, particularly as the public costs of pollution are not currently built into any of our economic systems.
Hmm I love a good economic discussion. I know we can't rely on a weak dollar forever, but as our dollar remains weak it should encourage outsiders to spend their money here because there Euro can buy twice as much here as it can at home. Even when adjusting for the increase in travel expenses due to oil we are still talking about your money going further. When the dollar stabalizes, which it will, the price of oil will fall as a function of it. I would like to visit dubais sick park, that place looks awesome and we should have our next reunion there!
Needless to say Hershey park is one of the weaker choices around here. We also have six flags, dorney park, the shore and sesame place as well. There is also a lot of good natural vacation spots to go visit and camp at. Im not worried about this rising cost of oil as some. The main upward pressure on the price of oil is coming from speculators driving the price up and that will end sooner or later.
I am not sure I agree with you when you say that the cost of the infrastructure for alternative energies must be bore on the public. Was the internet infrastructure publicly subsidized? (i don't know if it was or not) but I would love to put more money into alternative energy resources, but you can't do that and give money to oil at the same time. It will probably take oils research and development dollars to turn the renewable energy movement into what it needs to be; a viable alternative to oil.
Im not opposed to building in the costs of pollution into our economic system, but I don't know if public subsidy is the push you are looking for.
Yes, the government started the internet as a military project. Al Gore pushed through the legislation that made it accessible to the public - I guess you could say he "invented" it.
Anyway, how timely (and sad), an example of how government support - or lack thereof - is critical to foundling alternative energy tech:
http://lists.grist.org/t?r=2&c=3223&l=19&ctl=28F74:15AF9DD62B0E5A4172AC1A51AEBC3F6A
No Renewal for Renewables
Senate Republicans block bills to extend renewables subsidies and tax oil companies
With gas prices now averaging a record $4.04 a gallon in the United States, the Senate voted on two bills Tuesday that would have revoked tax breaks for oil companies and extended tax credits to renewable-energy companies -- and Republicans blocked both of them. The first bill would have levied a 25 percent tax on "windfall profits" of major oil companies and repealed billions of dollars in tax breaks for the oil and gas industry. The second would have extended existing tax credits for solar, wind, geothermal, and other clean-energy businesses, funding the extensions by repealing some so-called tax "loopholes" for hedge funds and corporations. Renewable-energy companies have been counting on Congress to renew the tax credits and now they're getting worried. They say more than 116,000 U.S. jobs and nearly $19 billion in investment could be lost over the next year if the credits aren't extended.
new in Muckraker: No renewal for renewables
also in Muckraker: Renewables industry fears for future if Senate doesn't extend tax credits
I guess every little bit helps
http://www.engadget.com/2008/06/13/us-department-of-energy-pours-30-million-into-plug-in-hybrids/
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